FPL Gameweek 1 predictions, captain picks and differentials — 2026/27 season

Best FPL captain picks for Gameweek 1

The highest projected captain for Gameweek 1 is Haaland of MCI, playing at home to BOU, with 8.31 expected points, a floor of 1.0 and a ceiling of 17.0. His probability of playing at least 60 minutes is 82%. The alternative armband is B.Fernandes of MUN away at HUL on 5.56 expected points, with a ceiling of 14.0.

Best FPL differentials for Gameweek 1

These players are owned by under 10 per cent of Fantasy Premier League managers and carry the highest projections in that group for Gameweek 1.

• Gakpo (LIV, MID, £7.0m) is 3.4 per cent owned and projected 4.03 points away at NEW, with a ceiling of 11.0.
• Leno (FUL, GK, £4.5m) is 3.2 per cent owned and projected 3.46 points at home to CHE, with a ceiling of 10.0.
• Woltemade (NEW, FWD, £6.0m) is 1.7 per cent owned and projected 3.46 points at home to LIV, with a ceiling of 9.0.
• Kelleher (BRE, GK, £5.0m) is 5.6 per cent owned and projected 3.44 points at home to TOT, with a ceiling of 9.0.
• Thiaw (NEW, DEF, £5.0m) is 2.0 per cent owned and projected 3.44 points at home to LIV, with a ceiling of 9.0.

Clean sheet probabilities and best fixtures in Gameweek 1

The highest simulated clean sheet probabilities belong to Gabriel (ARS, 55% at home to COV); Raya (ARS, 55% at home to COV); Calafiori (ARS, 55% at home to COV); Hincapie (ARS, 55% at home to COV); White (ARS, 55% at home to COV).

By fixture difficulty, the schedule most favours NEW at home to LIV, IPS at home to SUN, ARS at home to COV, LIV away at NEW, HUL at home to MUN. Attacking assets from these clubs carry the largest fixture uplift this gameweek.

FPL injury news affecting Gameweek 1

• Sepp van den Berg (Brentford) — Ruled Out, rated 0% available. July 28: 'Sepp van den Berg is reportedly set to miss three months with an injury.'
• Veljko Milosavljevic (AFC Bournemouth) — Ruled Out, rated 0% available. Aug 03: 'And after the injury of Veljko, we may be looking for another [centre-back] because we don't know when Veljko is coming back. But even in this case, we have no rush as well.'
• Julian Araujo (AFC Bournemouth) — Ruled Out, rated 0% available. Aug 03: 'And yeah, Julian's injury, so we're going to look for the right-back position as well.'
• Yegor Yarmoliuk (Brentford) — Ruled Out, rated 0% available. Undisclosed
• William Saliba (Arsenal) — Ruled Out, rated 0% available. Back Injury
• Amadou Onana (Aston Villa) — Ruled Out, rated 0% available. July 08: 'Unfortunately, the medical examinations have confirmed that Amadou has suffered a rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL). We immediately consulted with Amadou and with AVFC to agree on the best approac
• Leon Bailey (Aston Villa) — Ruled Out, rated 0% available. Muscular Injury
• Johan Manzambi (Aston Villa) — Ruled Out, rated 0% available. July 10: 'We tried everything that we could to get him back. Unfortunately, he’s unable to perform tomorrow. Johan is in ?a lot of pain. It was a shock to all of us. This momentum was on his side, and there is so much ?j

How these Gameweek 1 numbers are produced

Each fixture is simulated 500 times. Minutes are sampled per player, team goals are drawn from a Poisson process based on attack and defence strength, and goals, assists, saves, cards and bonus points are allocated within each simulated match under the official FPL scoring rules. Expected points is the mean of those simulations; floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles. Read the full method or the FAQ.