Gameweek preview · 2026/27

FPL Gameweek 1 predictions: captain picks, transfers & differentials

Every fixture simulated 500 times for 502 players — expected points with a floor and a ceiling. Updated Wed, 26 Aug 2026 06:40:24 GMT.

Gameweek 1 has been played. Below are the predictions we published before the deadline, unchanged, next to what really happened.

Gameweek 1 results: predicted vs actual points

Across 500 players, our predictions were off by 1.70 points per player on average (we over-predicted by 0.39 on average). No cherry-picking — this is every player we projected.

Player	Predicted	Actual	Mins
Haaland MCI	8.0	2	90
B.Fernandes MUN	5.9	2	90
Thiago BRE	4.9	0	82
Semenyo MCI	4.8	2	90
Gabriel ARS	4.8	5	90
Gyökeres ARS	4.8	0	0
Isak LIV	4.6	2	90
Woltemade NEW	4.2	0	0
Calafiori ARS	4.2	9	80
Gibbs-White NFO	4.1	2	90
Watkins AVL	4.1	0	0
Enzo CHE	4.0	1	25
Ndiaye EVE	4.0	9	90
Mateta CRY	4.0	2	62
Calvert-Lewin LEE	3.9	1	90

See the full season record on is FPL AI accurate?

GW1: gameweek
8.0: top projection
502: players simulated
500: sims per fixture

Captain picks — Gameweek 1

Haaland (MCI vs BOU) leads on 8.00 xPts, 87% chance of 60+ minutes.

Haaland8.0xPts
MCI vs BOU · 87% to play 60'
floor 2.0ceiling 15.0
B.Fernandes5.9xPts
MUN @ HUL · 71% to play 60'
floor 0.0ceiling 14.0
Thiago4.9xPts
BRE vs TOT · 87% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 11.0
Semenyo4.8xPts
MCI vs BOU · 86% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 11.0
Gabriel4.8xPts
ARS vs COV · 82% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 9.0

Clean sheet odds

Gabriel · ARS
55%
Calafiori · ARS
55%
Hincapie · ARS
55%
Raya · ARS
55%
White · ARS
55%

LIV @ NEWMCI vs BOUNEW vs LIVARS vs COVHUL vs MUN

Differentials under 10% owned

← lower ownershiphigher xPts ↑

Gyökeres ARS · FWD · £7.4m · 7.5% owned4.76 xPts
Woltemade NEW · FWD · £6.0m · 1.6% owned4.23 xPts
Gibbs-White NFO · MID · £8.0m · 9.8% owned4.13 xPts
Watkins AVL · FWD · £8.0m · 9.0% owned4.08 xPts
Enzo CHE · MID · £7.0m · 4.8% owned4.05 xPts

Best value picks — Gameweek 1 transfer targets

Most projected points per £1m among players likely to play 60+ minutes.

Calafiori DEF · ARS vs COV · £5.5m4.20 xPts
N.Williams DEF · NFO vs LEE · £5.0m3.73 xPts
F.Kadıoğlu DEF · BHA vs AVL · £4.5m3.23 xPts
Ndiaye MID · EVE vs CRY · £6.0m4.04 xPts
Gomez MID · BHA vs AVL · £5.0m3.36 xPts
Enzo MID · CHE @ FUL · £7.0m4.05 xPts
Woltemade FWD · NEW vs LIV · £6.0m4.23 xPts
Nmecha FWD · LEE @ NFO · £5.5m3.66 xPts
Calvert-Lewin FWD · LEE @ NFO · £6.0m3.93 xPts

FPL Gameweek 1 predicted points — top 25

Player	Fixture	£m	xPts
Haaland FWD	MCI vs BOU	15.5	8.00
B.Fernandes MID	MUN @ HUL	12.0	5.86
Thiago FWD	BRE vs TOT	8.0	4.92
Semenyo MID	MCI vs BOU	8.5	4.85
Gabriel DEF	ARS vs COV	8.0	4.78
Gyökeres FWD	ARS vs COV	7.4	4.76
Isak FWD	LIV @ NEW	9.0	4.64
Woltemade FWD	NEW vs LIV	6.0	4.23
Calafiori DEF	ARS vs COV	5.5	4.20
Gibbs-White MID	NFO vs LEE	8.0	4.13
Watkins FWD	AVL @ BHA	8.0	4.08
Enzo MID	CHE @ FUL	7.0	4.05
Ndiaye MID	EVE vs CRY	6.0	4.04
Mateta FWD	CRY @ EVE	6.5	3.98
Calvert-Lewin FWD	LEE @ NFO	6.0	3.93
Richarlison FWD	TOT @ BRE	6.0	3.93
Hincapie DEF	ARS vs COV	5.5	3.86
O'Reilly DEF	MCI vs BOU	6.5	3.86
Guéhi DEF	MCI vs BOU	6.0	3.80
Raya GK	ARS vs COV	6.0	3.78
N.Williams DEF	NFO vs LEE	5.0	3.73
Nmecha FWD	LEE @ NFO	5.5	3.66
Szoboszlai MID	LIV @ NEW	7.0	3.62
Verbruggen GK	BHA vs AVL	4.5	3.58
Beto FWD	EVE vs CRY	5.5	3.56

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How these numbers are produced

Minutes are sampled per player, team goals drawn from a Poisson process from attack and defence strength, then goals, assists, saves, cards and bonus allocated under official FPL scoring. xPts is the mean of 500 simulations; floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles. See the method or the FAQ.