Gameweek preview · 2026/27

FPL Gameweek 2 predictions: captain picks, transfers & differentials

Every fixture simulated 500 times for 476 players — expected points with a floor and a ceiling. Updated Fri, 28 Aug 2026 08:50:03 GMT.

Gameweek 2 has been played. Below are the predictions we published before the deadline, unchanged, next to what really happened.

Gameweek 2 results: predicted vs actual points

Across 469 players, our predictions were off by 1.55 points per player on average (we over-predicted by 0.29 on average). No cherry-picking — this is every player we projected.

Player	Predicted	Actual	Mins
B.Fernandes MUN	7.6	23	90
Szoboszlai LIV	5.8	4	90
Guéhi MCI	5.5	2	90
Hume SUN	5.2	6	90
E.Le Fée SUN	5.0	3	89
Mbeumo MUN	4.7	11	90
Thiaw NEW	4.6	6	90
Virgil LIV	4.5	1	90
Gabriel ARS	4.5	8	90
Rice ARS	4.5	5	84
O'Reilly MCI	4.4	2	88
Calafiori ARS	4.3	11	90
Stach LEE	4.2	4	90
Groß BHA	4.2	13	90
Ndiaye EVE	4.2	4	90

See the full season record on is FPL AI accurate?

GW2: gameweek
7.6: top projection
476: players simulated
500: sims per fixture

Captain picks — Gameweek 2

B.Fernandes (MUN vs IPS) leads on 7.59 xPts, 82% chance of 60+ minutes.

B.Fernandes7.6xPts
MUN vs IPS · 82% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 13.0
Szoboszlai5.8xPts
LIV vs NFO · 80% to play 60'
floor 0.0ceiling 10.0
Guéhi5.5xPts
MCI @ CRY · 83% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 10.0
Hume5.2xPts
SUN vs FUL · 85% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 8.0
E.Le Fée5.0xPts
SUN vs FUL · 84% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 9.0

Clean sheet odds

Guéhi · MCI
51%
O'Reilly · MCI
51%
Donnarumma · MCI
51%
Rúben · MCI
51%
Matheus N. · MCI
51%

COV vs HULHUL @ COVMUN vs IPSLIV vs NFOAVL vs ARS

Differentials under 10% owned

← lower ownershiphigher xPts ↑

Hume SUN · DEF · £4.5m · 6.4% owned5.17 xPts
E.Le Fée SUN · MID · £6.0m · 8.9% owned5.00 xPts
Thiaw NEW · DEF · £5.0m · 1.7% owned4.58 xPts
Stach LEE · MID · £6.0m · 2.2% owned4.22 xPts
Hall NEW · DEF · £5.0m · 4.1% owned4.13 xPts

Best value picks — Gameweek 2 transfer targets

Most projected points per £1m among players likely to play 60+ minutes.

Hume DEF · SUN vs FUL · £4.5m5.17 xPts
Thomas DEF · COV vs HUL · £4.0m3.83 xPts
Thiaw DEF · NEW @ TOT · £5.0m4.58 xPts
E.Le Fée MID · SUN vs FUL · £6.0m5.00 xPts
Szoboszlai MID · LIV vs NFO · £7.0m5.81 xPts
Groß MID · BHA @ CHE · £5.5m4.19 xPts
Nmecha FWD · LEE vs BRE · £5.5m3.16 xPts
Calvert-Lewin FWD · LEE vs BRE · £6.0m3.14 xPts
Evanilson FWD · BOU vs EVE · £6.0m3.12 xPts

FPL Gameweek 2 predicted points — top 25

Player	Fixture	£m	xPts
B.Fernandes MID	MUN vs IPS	12.0	7.59
Szoboszlai MID	LIV vs NFO	7.0	5.81
Guéhi DEF	MCI @ CRY	6.0	5.49
Hume DEF	SUN vs FUL	4.5	5.17
E.Le Fée MID	SUN vs FUL	6.0	5.00
Mbeumo MID	MUN vs IPS	8.0	4.67
Thiaw DEF	NEW @ TOT	5.0	4.58
Virgil DEF	LIV vs NFO	6.5	4.55
Gabriel DEF	ARS @ AVL	8.0	4.49
Rice MID	ARS @ AVL	7.5	4.48
O'Reilly DEF	MCI @ CRY	6.5	4.39
Calafiori DEF	ARS @ AVL	5.6	4.33
Stach MID	LEE vs BRE	6.0	4.22
Groß MID	BHA @ CHE	5.5	4.19
Ndiaye MID	EVE @ BOU	6.0	4.19
Hall DEF	NEW @ TOT	5.0	4.13
Truffert DEF	BOU vs EVE	5.5	4.06
Dewsbury-Hall MID	EVE @ BOU	6.5	4.06
Semenyo MID	MCI @ CRY	8.5	4.06
Xhaka MID	SUN vs FUL	5.5	4.06
Enzo MID	CHE vs BHA	7.0	4.02
Gakpo MID	LIV vs NFO	7.0	4.02
Tavernier MID	BOU vs EVE	6.0	4.00
Bogle DEF	LEE vs BRE	4.5	3.99
Shaw DEF	MUN vs IPS	4.5	3.86

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How these numbers are produced

Minutes are sampled per player, team goals drawn from a Poisson process from attack and defence strength, then goals, assists, saves, cards and bonus allocated under official FPL scoring. xPts is the mean of 500 simulations; floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles. See the method or the FAQ.