Gameweek preview · 2026/27

FPL Gameweek 6 predictions: captain picks, transfers & differentials

Every fixture simulated 500 times for 431 players — expected points with a floor and a ceiling. Updated Sat, 10 Oct 2026 00:50:06 GMT.

Gameweek 6 has been played. Below are the predictions we published before the deadline, unchanged, next to what really happened.

Gameweek 6 results: predicted vs actual points

Across 431 players, our predictions were off by 1.68 points per player on average (we over-predicted by 0.20 on average). No cherry-picking — this is every player we projected.

Player	Predicted	Actual	Mins
Saka ARS	11.1	2	90
B.Fernandes MUN	8.7	1	90
Gibbs-White NFO	8.0	2	90
Mbeumo MUN	7.3	8	90
Calafiori ARS	7.1	9	81
Ødegaard ARS	7.0	1	89
Gabriel ARS	6.6	2	90
E.Le Fée SUN	6.4	2	80
Tavernier BOU	6.3	1	72
Dewsbury-Hall EVE	5.9	13	90
Cherki MCI	5.9	10	90
Enciso IPS	5.6	2	70
Davis IPS	5.4	1	90
Cunha MUN	5.2	10	90
Thiago BRE	5.1	4	90

See the full season record on is FPL AI accurate?

GW6: gameweek
11.1: top projection
431: players simulated
500: sims per fixture

Captain picks — Gameweek 6

Saka (ARS vs LEE) leads on 11.05 xPts, 78% chance of 60+ minutes.

Saka11.1xPts
ARS vs LEE · 78% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 14.0
B.Fernandes8.7xPts
MUN vs TOT · 81% to play 60'
floor 0.0ceiling 13.0
Gibbs-White8.0xPts
NFO @ CRY · 86% to play 60'
floor 2.0ceiling 11.0
Mbeumo7.3xPts
MUN vs TOT · 83% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 12.0
Calafiori7.1xPts
ARS vs LEE · 76% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 10.0

Clean sheet odds

Calafiori · ARS
62%
Gabriel · ARS
62%
J.Timber · ARS
62%
Raya · ARS
62%
White · ARS
62%

ARS vs LEETOT @ MUNCOV vs NEWNFO @ CRYMUN vs TOT

Differentials under 10% owned

← lower ownershiphigher xPts ↑

E.Le Fée SUN · MID · £5.7m · 3.2% owned6.38 xPts
Tavernier BOU · MID · £6.1m · 7.1% owned6.33 xPts
Dewsbury-Hall EVE · MID · £6.6m · 5.7% owned5.94 xPts
Enciso IPS · MID · £5.5m · 0.8% owned5.57 xPts
Davis IPS · DEF · £4.0m · 7.5% owned5.40 xPts

Best value picks — Gameweek 6 transfer targets

Most projected points per £1m among players likely to play 60+ minutes.

Davis DEF · IPS vs FUL · £4.0m5.40 xPts
Calafiori DEF · ARS vs LEE · £5.9m7.11 xPts
Dasilva DEF · COV vs NEW · £4.0m4.07 xPts
Saka MID · ARS vs LEE · £9.6m11.05 xPts
E.Le Fée MID · SUN vs BHA · £5.7m6.38 xPts
Tavernier MID · BOU @ CHE · £6.1m6.33 xPts
Delap FWD · NFO @ CRY · £5.6m4.40 xPts
Abraham FWD · AVL vs BRE · £5.5m4.31 xPts
McBurnie FWD · HUL vs EVE · £5.5m3.84 xPts

FPL Gameweek 6 predicted points — top 25

Player	Fixture	£m	xPts
Saka MID	ARS vs LEE	9.6	11.05
B.Fernandes MID	MUN vs TOT	11.9	8.66
Gibbs-White MID	NFO @ CRY	8.0	8.04
Mbeumo MID	MUN vs TOT	7.9	7.25
Calafiori DEF	ARS vs LEE	5.9	7.11
Ødegaard MID	ARS vs LEE	6.8	7.01
Gabriel DEF	ARS vs LEE	8.0	6.63
E.Le Fée MID	SUN vs BHA	5.7	6.38
Tavernier MID	BOU @ CHE	6.1	6.33
Dewsbury-Hall MID	EVE @ HUL	6.6	5.94
Cherki MID	MCI @ LIV	7.8	5.91
Enciso MID	IPS vs FUL	5.5	5.57
Davis DEF	IPS vs FUL	4.0	5.40
Cunha MID	MUN vs TOT	7.9	5.16
Thiago FWD	BRE @ AVL	7.8	5.11
Murillo DEF	NFO @ CRY	5.5	5.10
Szoboszlai MID	LIV vs MCI	6.9	5.09
Groß MID	BHA @ SUN	5.9	5.06
Neto MID	CHE vs BOU	6.5	5.06
Rayan MID	BOU @ CHE	6.3	4.99
Rice MID	ARS vs LEE	7.4	4.92
McGinn MID	AVL vs BRE	5.4	4.81
Buendía MID	AVL vs BRE	5.9	4.75
Xhaka MID	SUN vs BHA	5.5	4.74
Guéhi DEF	MCI @ LIV	6.0	4.63

Want this for your own team?

Upload a screenshot of your squad and get who to sell, who to buy and why — based on your money in the bank and free transfers.

start 3-day trial

How these numbers are produced

Minutes are sampled per player, team goals drawn from a Poisson process from attack and defence strength, then goals, assists, saves, cards and bonus allocated under official FPL scoring. xPts is the mean of 500 simulations; floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles. See the method or the FAQ.