Gameweek preview · 2026/27

FPL Gameweek 5 predictions: captain picks, transfers & differentials

Every fixture simulated 500 times for 441 players — expected points with a floor and a ceiling. Updated Fri, 18 Sep 2026 08:50:07 GMT.

Gameweek 5 has been played. Below are the predictions we published before the deadline, unchanged, next to what really happened.

Gameweek 5 results: predicted vs actual points

Across 441 players, our predictions were off by 1.74 points per player on average (we over-predicted by 0.40 on average). No cherry-picking — this is every player we projected.

Player	Predicted	Actual	Mins
Cherki MCI	6.8	8	84
Semenyo MCI	6.4	17	90
Guéhi MCI	6.1	4	90
Tavernier BOU	6.1	2	74
Dewsbury-Hall EVE	5.8	3	90
Palmer CHE	5.7	2	90
B.Fernandes MUN	5.6	2	90
Mbeumo MUN	5.6	2	90
Rúben MCI	5.5	1	90
Gibbs-White NFO	5.3	2	90
Saka ARS	5.2	2	80
Barnes NEW	5.0	9	90
McGinn AVL	5.0	6	83
Garner EVE	5.0	3	90
Gabriel ARS	5.0	1	90

See the full season record on is FPL AI accurate?

GW5: gameweek
6.8: top projection
441: players simulated
500: sims per fixture

Captain picks — Gameweek 5

Cherki (MCI vs SUN) leads on 6.84 xPts, 65% chance of 60+ minutes.

Cherki6.8xPts
MCI vs SUN · 65% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 10.0
Semenyo6.4xPts
MCI vs SUN · 88% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 9.0
Guéhi6.1xPts
MCI vs SUN · 82% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 10.0
Tavernier6.1xPts
BOU vs LIV · 83% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 10.0
Dewsbury-Hall5.8xPts
EVE vs IPS · 87% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 9.0

Clean sheet odds

Guéhi · MCI
57%
Rúben · MCI
57%
Gvardiol · MCI
57%
O'Reilly · MCI
57%
Donnarumma · MCI
57%

HUL @ NEWEVE vs IPSNEW vs HULFUL vs MUNMCI vs SUN

Differentials under 10% owned

← lower ownershiphigher xPts ↑

Tavernier BOU · MID · £6.1m · 6.0% owned6.13 xPts
Dewsbury-Hall EVE · MID · £6.5m · 5.8% owned5.77 xPts
Rúben MCI · DEF · £5.5m · 1.9% owned5.45 xPts
Barnes NEW · MID · £6.0m · 3.7% owned5.04 xPts
McGinn AVL · MID · £5.4m · 2.2% owned4.99 xPts

Best value picks — Gameweek 5 transfer targets

Most projected points per £1m among players likely to play 60+ minutes.

Guéhi DEF · MCI vs SUN · £6.0m6.14 xPts
Rúben DEF · MCI vs SUN · £5.5m5.45 xPts
Dasilva DEF · COV @ NFO · £4.0m3.71 xPts
Tavernier MID · BOU vs LIV · £6.1m6.13 xPts
McGinn MID · AVL @ TOT · £5.4m4.99 xPts
Dewsbury-Hall MID · EVE vs IPS · £6.5m5.77 xPts
Barry FWD · EVE vs IPS · £5.6m4.52 xPts
Calvert-Lewin FWD · LEE vs CRY · £6.0m4.43 xPts
Wissa FWD · NEW vs HUL · £6.2m4.09 xPts

FPL Gameweek 5 predicted points — top 25

Player	Fixture	£m	xPts
Cherki MID	MCI vs SUN	7.8	6.84
Semenyo MID	MCI vs SUN	8.4	6.40
Guéhi DEF	MCI vs SUN	6.0	6.14
Tavernier MID	BOU vs LIV	6.1	6.13
Dewsbury-Hall MID	EVE vs IPS	6.5	5.77
Palmer MID	CHE @ BRE	9.7	5.67
B.Fernandes MID	MUN @ FUL	12.0	5.60
Mbeumo MID	MUN @ FUL	7.9	5.59
Rúben DEF	MCI vs SUN	5.5	5.45
Gibbs-White MID	NFO vs COV	8.0	5.28
Saka MID	ARS @ BHA	9.5	5.17
Barnes MID	NEW vs HUL	6.0	5.04
McGinn MID	AVL @ TOT	5.4	4.99
Garner MID	EVE vs IPS	6.0	4.97
Gabriel DEF	ARS @ BHA	8.0	4.96
Schade MID	BRE vs CHE	6.1	4.93
Haaland FWD	MCI vs SUN	15.6	4.82
Enzo MID	MCI vs SUN	6.9	4.80
Szoboszlai MID	LIV @ BOU	7.0	4.76
Thiago FWD	BRE vs CHE	7.8	4.56
Stach MID	LEE vs CRY	6.0	4.53
Barry FWD	EVE vs IPS	5.6	4.52
Wirtz MID	LIV @ BOU	7.3	4.47
Groß MID	BHA vs ARS	5.7	4.43
Calvert-Lewin FWD	LEE vs CRY	6.0	4.43

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How these numbers are produced

Minutes are sampled per player, team goals drawn from a Poisson process from attack and defence strength, then goals, assists, saves, cards and bonus allocated under official FPL scoring. xPts is the mean of 500 simulations; floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles. See the method or the FAQ.