Gameweek preview · 2026/27

FPL Gameweek 7 predictions: captain picks, transfers & differentials

Every fixture simulated 500 times for 439 players — expected points with a floor and a ceiling. Updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026 00:50:06 GMT.

Gameweek 7 has been played. Below are the predictions we published before the deadline, unchanged, next to what really happened.

Gameweek 7 results: predicted vs actual points

Across 439 players, our predictions were off by 1.63 points per player on average (we over-predicted by 0.17 on average). No cherry-picking — this is every player we projected.

Player	Predicted	Actual	Mins
Calafiori ARS	6.4	6	90
Cherki MCI	6.2	0	0
Saka ARS	6.0	3	90
Groß BHA	5.7	5	70
B.Fernandes MUN	5.7	1	90
Guéhi MCI	5.6	1	90
Tavernier BOU	5.5	10	78
Thiago BRE	5.3	4	90
Palmer CHE	5.3	2	90
Haaland MCI	5.3	13	90
Gabriel ARS	5.3	8	90
Mbeumo MUN	5.0	8	90
Calvert-Lewin LEE	4.8	9	90
Ødegaard ARS	4.7	3	90
Silva BOU	4.7	8	90

See the full season record on is FPL AI accurate?

GW7: gameweek
6.4: top projection
439: players simulated
500: sims per fixture

Captain picks — Gameweek 7

Calafiori (ARS @ NFO) leads on 6.38 xPts, 78% chance of 60+ minutes.

Calafiori6.4xPts
ARS @ NFO · 78% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 8.0
Cherki6.2xPts
MCI vs IPS · 72% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 12.0
Saka6.0xPts
ARS @ NFO · 74% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 11.0
Groß5.7xPts
BHA vs CRY · 82% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 9.0
B.Fernandes5.7xPts
MUN @ LEE · 84% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 11.0

Clean sheet odds

Calafiori · ARS
58%
Gabriel · ARS
58%
Raya · ARS
58%
White · ARS
58%
J.Timber · ARS
58%

MCI vs IPSFUL vs HULCOV @ TOTLIV @ BREHUL @ FUL

Differentials under 10% owned

← lower ownershiphigher xPts ↑

Tavernier BOU · MID · £6.1m · 7.6% owned5.54 xPts
Thiago BRE · FWD · £7.8m · 9.0% owned5.35 xPts
Silva BOU · DEF · £5.0m · 0.6% owned4.65 xPts
Dewsbury-Hall EVE · MID · £6.6m · 6.0% owned4.64 xPts
Wirtz LIV · MID · £7.2m · 5.1% owned4.64 xPts

Best value picks — Gameweek 7 transfer targets

Most projected points per £1m among players likely to play 60+ minutes.

Calafiori DEF · ARS @ NFO · £5.9m6.38 xPts
Dasilva DEF · COV @ TOT · £4.0m4.04 xPts
Thomas DEF · COV @ TOT · £4.0m3.73 xPts
Groß MID · BHA vs CRY · £6.1m5.74 xPts
Tavernier MID · BOU vs SUN · £6.1m5.54 xPts
Gomez MID · BHA vs CRY · £5.0m4.48 xPts
Calvert-Lewin FWD · LEE vs MUN · £6.0m4.81 xPts
Thiago FWD · BRE vs LIV · £7.8m5.35 xPts
McBurnie FWD · HUL @ FUL · £5.5m3.75 xPts

FPL Gameweek 7 predicted points — top 25

Player	Fixture	£m	xPts
Calafiori DEF	ARS @ NFO	5.9	6.38
Cherki MID	MCI vs IPS	7.9	6.23
Saka MID	ARS @ NFO	9.6	5.96
Groß MID	BHA vs CRY	6.1	5.74
B.Fernandes MID	MUN @ LEE	11.8	5.68
Guéhi DEF	MCI vs IPS	6.0	5.58
Tavernier MID	BOU vs SUN	6.1	5.54
Thiago FWD	BRE vs LIV	7.8	5.35
Palmer MID	CHE @ EVE	9.7	5.35
Haaland FWD	MCI vs IPS	15.7	5.31
Gabriel DEF	ARS @ NFO	7.9	5.29
Mbeumo MID	MUN @ LEE	7.8	4.95
Calvert-Lewin FWD	LEE vs MUN	6.0	4.81
Ødegaard MID	ARS @ NFO	6.8	4.72
Silva DEF	BOU vs SUN	5.0	4.65
Dewsbury-Hall MID	EVE vs CHE	6.6	4.64
Wirtz MID	LIV @ BRE	7.2	4.64
McGinn MID	AVL @ NEW	5.4	4.53
Rúben DEF	MCI vs IPS	5.5	4.53
Gomez MID	BHA vs CRY	5.0	4.48
Garner MID	EVE vs CHE	6.0	4.45
Rayan MID	BOU vs SUN	6.3	4.37
E.Le Fée MID	SUN @ BOU	5.7	4.36
Semenyo MID	MCI vs IPS	8.3	4.32
Janelt MID	BRE vs LIV	5.0	4.27

Want this for your own team?

Upload a screenshot of your squad and get who to sell, who to buy and why — based on your money in the bank and free transfers.

start 3-day trial

How these numbers are produced

Minutes are sampled per player, team goals drawn from a Poisson process from attack and defence strength, then goals, assists, saves, cards and bonus allocated under official FPL scoring. xPts is the mean of 500 simulations; floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles. See the method or the FAQ.