Gameweek preview · 2026/27

FPL Gameweek 4 predictions: captain picks, transfers & differentials

Every fixture simulated 500 times for 453 players — expected points with a floor and a ceiling. Updated Sat, 12 Sep 2026 02:50:04 GMT.

Gameweek 4 has been played. Below are the predictions we published before the deadline, unchanged, next to what really happened.

Gameweek 4 results: predicted vs actual points

Across 453 players, our predictions were off by 1.77 points per player on average (we over-predicted by 0.33 on average). No cherry-picking — this is every player we projected.

Player	Predicted	Actual	Mins
Szoboszlai LIV	6.7	3	90
B.Fernandes MUN	6.6	2	90
Palmer CHE	6.2	5	90
Tavernier BOU	6.0	8	82
Gibbs-White NFO	5.8	8	90
Mbeumo MUN	5.7	2	90
Dewsbury-Hall EVE	5.6	2	90
Wirtz LIV	5.5	3	90
Gabriel ARS	5.4	9	90
Cherki MCI	5.4	1	45
Virgil LIV	5.2	8	90
Scott BOU	4.9	4	90
Neto CHE	4.8	2	85
Tarkowski EVE	4.8	8	90
Groß BHA	4.8	17	90

See the full season record on is FPL AI accurate?

GW4: gameweek
6.7: top projection
453: players simulated
500: sims per fixture

Captain picks — Gameweek 4

Szoboszlai (LIV vs FUL) leads on 6.70 xPts, 84% chance of 60+ minutes.

Szoboszlai6.7xPts
LIV vs FUL · 84% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 11.0
B.Fernandes6.6xPts
MUN vs MCI · 82% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 11.0
Palmer6.2xPts
CHE vs HUL · 76% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 10.0
Tavernier6.0xPts
BOU vs BRE · 80% to play 60'
floor 0.0ceiling 10.0
Gibbs-White5.8xPts
NFO @ AVL · 88% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 9.0

Clean sheet odds

Gabriel · ARS
52%
Calafiori · ARS
52%
White · ARS
52%
Raya · ARS
52%
Konsa · ARS
52%

EVE @ TOTHUL @ CHELIV vs FULCOV vs BHACRY vs IPS

Differentials under 10% owned

← lower ownershiphigher xPts ↑

Tavernier BOU · MID · £6.0m · 3.6% owned6.03 xPts
Gibbs-White NFO · MID · £7.9m · 9.4% owned5.75 xPts
Dewsbury-Hall EVE · MID · £6.5m · 4.6% owned5.60 xPts
Wirtz LIV · MID · £7.4m · 8.0% owned5.47 xPts
Scott BOU · MID · £6.1m · 5.6% owned4.88 xPts

Best value picks — Gameweek 4 transfer targets

Most projected points per £1m among players likely to play 60+ minutes.

Mykolenko DEF · EVE @ TOT · £4.5m4.65 xPts
Bogle DEF · LEE vs NEW · £4.5m4.46 xPts
Thomas DEF · COV vs BHA · £4.0m3.92 xPts
Tavernier MID · BOU vs BRE · £6.0m6.03 xPts
Szoboszlai MID · LIV vs FUL · £7.0m6.70 xPts
Enciso MID · IPS @ CRY · £5.5m4.75 xPts
Barry FWD · EVE @ TOT · £5.6m3.93 xPts
Abraham FWD · AVL vs NFO · £5.5m3.78 xPts
Awoniyi FWD · COV vs BHA · £5.5m3.18 xPts

FPL Gameweek 4 predicted points — top 25

Player	Fixture	£m	xPts
Szoboszlai MID	LIV vs FUL	7.0	6.70
B.Fernandes MID	MUN vs MCI	12.0	6.64
Palmer MID	CHE vs HUL	9.7	6.22
Tavernier MID	BOU vs BRE	6.0	6.03
Gibbs-White MID	NFO @ AVL	7.9	5.75
Mbeumo MID	MUN vs MCI	7.9	5.65
Dewsbury-Hall MID	EVE @ TOT	6.5	5.60
Wirtz MID	LIV vs FUL	7.4	5.47
Gabriel DEF	ARS @ SUN	8.0	5.43
Cherki MID	MCI @ MUN	7.8	5.41
Virgil DEF	LIV vs FUL	6.5	5.21
Scott MID	BOU vs BRE	6.1	4.88
Neto MID	CHE vs HUL	6.5	4.82
Tarkowski DEF	EVE @ TOT	6.0	4.79
Groß MID	BHA @ COV	5.6	4.78
Saka MID	ARS @ SUN	9.5	4.75
Enciso MID	IPS @ CRY	5.5	4.75
Mykolenko DEF	EVE @ TOT	4.5	4.65
Semenyo MID	MCI @ MUN	8.4	4.64
Calafiori DEF	ARS @ SUN	5.8	4.59
McGinn MID	AVL vs NFO	5.4	4.54
Garner MID	EVE @ TOT	6.0	4.49
Bogle DEF	LEE vs NEW	4.5	4.46
Rice MID	ARS @ SUN	7.4	4.45
Haaland FWD	MCI @ MUN	15.5	4.44

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How these numbers are produced

Minutes are sampled per player, team goals drawn from a Poisson process from attack and defence strength, then goals, assists, saves, cards and bonus allocated under official FPL scoring. xPts is the mean of 500 simulations; floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles. See the method or the FAQ.