Gameweek preview · 2026/27

FPL Gameweek 9 predictions: captain picks, transfers & differentials

Every fixture simulated 500 times for 434 players — expected points with a floor and a ceiling. Updated Sat, 31 Oct 2026 02:50:03 GMT.

Gameweek 9 has been played. Below are the predictions we published before the deadline, unchanged, next to what really happened.

Gameweek 9 results: predicted vs actual points

Across 434 players, our predictions were off by 1.58 points per player on average (we over-predicted by 0.22 on average). No cherry-picking — this is every player we projected.

Player	Predicted	Actual	Mins
Tavernier BOU	6.0	3	90
Rayan BOU	5.2	3	87
Ødegaard ARS	5.2	3	87
Haaland MCI	5.0	2	90
Mbeumo MUN	5.0	1	90
Gabriel ARS	4.9	6	90
Wharton CRY	4.9	4	87
Cherki MCI	4.8	1	35
Yeremy CRY	4.8	1	59
Enciso IPS	4.7	8	90
Silva BOU	4.6	8	90
Kamada CRY	4.6	2	87
Guéhi MCI	4.5	0	0
Gibbs-White NFO	4.5	2	90
Dewsbury-Hall EVE	4.4	4	90

See the full season record on is FPL AI accurate?

GW9: gameweek
6.0: top projection
434: players simulated
500: sims per fixture

Captain picks — Gameweek 9

Tavernier (BOU vs LEE) leads on 6.05 xPts, 77% chance of 60+ minutes.

Tavernier6.0xPts
BOU vs LEE · 77% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 11.0
Rayan5.2xPts
BOU vs LEE · 80% to play 60'
floor 0.0ceiling 9.0
Ødegaard5.2xPts
ARS @ LIV · 74% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 7.0
Haaland5.0xPts
MCI vs BHA · 86% to play 60'
floor 2.0ceiling 13.0
Mbeumo5.0xPts
MUN @ CHE · 84% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 11.0

Clean sheet odds

Silva · BOU
43%
Truffert · BOU
43%
Hill · BOU
43%
Smith · BOU
43%
Petrović · BOU
43%

HUL vs IPSCOV vs SUNEVE @ NEWIPS @ HULMCI vs BHA

Differentials under 10% owned

← lower ownershiphigher xPts ↑

Rayan BOU · MID · £6.3m · 2.1% owned5.20 xPts
Wharton CRY · MID · £5.4m · 0.6% owned4.86 xPts
Yeremy CRY · MID · £5.5m · 0.3% owned4.80 xPts
Enciso IPS · MID · £5.5m · 0.9% owned4.73 xPts
Silva BOU · DEF · £5.0m · 1.9% owned4.62 xPts

Best value picks — Gameweek 9 transfer targets

Most projected points per £1m among players likely to play 60+ minutes.

Dasilva DEF · COV vs SUN · £4.0m4.03 xPts
Lindelöf DEF · AVL vs FUL · £4.5m4.34 xPts
Cash DEF · AVL vs FUL · £4.3m4.00 xPts
Tavernier MID · BOU vs LEE · £6.4m6.05 xPts
Kamada MID · CRY @ TOT · £5.0m4.60 xPts
Wharton MID · CRY @ TOT · £5.4m4.86 xPts
McBurnie FWD · HUL vs IPS · £5.5m4.10 xPts
Barry FWD · EVE @ NEW · £5.6m3.81 xPts
Delap FWD · NFO @ BRE · £5.5m3.44 xPts

FPL Gameweek 9 predicted points — top 25

Player	Fixture	£m	xPts
Tavernier MID	BOU vs LEE	6.4	6.05
Rayan MID	BOU vs LEE	6.3	5.20
Ødegaard MID	ARS @ LIV	6.7	5.16
Haaland FWD	MCI vs BHA	15.8	5.01
Mbeumo MID	MUN @ CHE	7.9	4.98
Gabriel DEF	ARS @ LIV	7.9	4.93
Wharton MID	CRY @ TOT	5.4	4.86
Cherki MID	MCI vs BHA	8.0	4.82
Yeremy MID	CRY @ TOT	5.5	4.80
Enciso MID	IPS @ HUL	5.5	4.73
Silva DEF	BOU vs LEE	5.0	4.62
Kamada MID	CRY @ TOT	5.0	4.60
Guéhi DEF	MCI vs BHA	6.0	4.55
Gibbs-White MID	NFO @ BRE	7.9	4.53
Dewsbury-Hall MID	EVE @ NEW	6.6	4.37
Lindelöf DEF	AVL vs FUL	4.5	4.34
Truffert DEF	BOU vs LEE	5.4	4.32
Neto MID	CHE vs MUN	6.6	4.32
Thiago FWD	BRE vs NFO	7.8	4.31
Garner MID	EVE @ NEW	6.0	4.25
Hill DEF	BOU vs LEE	5.5	4.22
B.Fernandes MID	MUN @ CHE	11.7	4.18
Rúben DEF	MCI vs BHA	5.5	4.16
Barnes MID	NEW vs EVE	6.1	4.16
McBurnie FWD	HUL vs IPS	5.5	4.10

Want this for your own team?

Upload a screenshot of your squad and get who to sell, who to buy and why — based on your money in the bank and free transfers.

start 3-day trial

How these numbers are produced

Minutes are sampled per player, team goals drawn from a Poisson process from attack and defence strength, then goals, assists, saves, cards and bonus allocated under official FPL scoring. xPts is the mean of 500 simulations; floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles. See the method or the FAQ.