Gameweek preview · 2026/27

FPL Gameweek 3 predictions: captain picks, transfers & differentials

Every fixture simulated 500 times for 466 players — expected points with a floor and a ceiling. Updated Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:50:06 GMT.

Gameweek 3 has been played. Below are the predictions we published before the deadline, unchanged, next to what really happened.

Gameweek 3 results: predicted vs actual points

Across 466 players, our predictions were off by 1.64 points per player on average (we over-predicted by 0.29 on average). No cherry-picking — this is every player we projected.

Player	Predicted	Actual	Mins
B.Fernandes MUN	9.8	2	90
Cherki MCI	7.9	3	65
Mbeumo MUN	7.3	8	90
Foden MCI	7.3	1	24
Semenyo MCI	6.7	6	90
Guéhi MCI	6.5	8	90
Tavernier BOU	6.3	10	88
Saka ARS	6.0	2	89
Groß BHA	6.0	1	90
Kayode BRE	5.8	1	45
Gomez BHA	5.7	2	90
O'Reilly MCI	5.5	0	0
Enciso IPS	5.5	1	90
Collins BRE	5.4	1	16
Calafiori ARS	5.3	2	66

See the full season record on is FPL AI accurate?

GW3: gameweek
9.8: top projection
466: players simulated
500: sims per fixture

Captain picks — Gameweek 3

B.Fernandes (MUN @ EVE) leads on 9.82 xPts, 81% chance of 60+ minutes.

B.Fernandes9.8xPts
MUN @ EVE · 81% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 13.0
Cherki7.9xPts
MCI vs COV · 48% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 10.0
Mbeumo7.3xPts
MUN @ EVE · 77% to play 60'
floor 0.0ceiling 11.0
Foden7.3xPts
MCI vs COV · 65% to play 60'
floor 0.0ceiling 10.0
Semenyo6.7xPts
MCI vs COV · 86% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 10.0

Clean sheet odds

Guéhi · MCI
49%
O'Reilly · MCI
49%
Rúben · MCI
49%
Gvardiol · MCI
49%
Khusanov · MCI
49%

NEW vs BOUBOU @ NEWHUL vs AVLAVL @ HULBHA vs LEE

Differentials under 10% owned

← lower ownershiphigher xPts ↑

Foden MCI · MID · £7.0m · 5.6% owned7.27 xPts
Tavernier BOU · MID · £6.0m · 2.3% owned6.25 xPts
Kayode BRE · DEF · £4.6m · 9.6% owned5.78 xPts
Gomez BHA · MID · £5.0m · 4.7% owned5.69 xPts
Enciso IPS · MID · £5.5m · 0.7% owned5.45 xPts

Best value picks — Gameweek 3 transfer targets

Most projected points per £1m among players likely to play 60+ minutes.

Kayode DEF · BRE vs SUN · £4.6m5.78 xPts
Guéhi DEF · MCI vs COV · £6.0m6.49 xPts
Dunk DEF · BHA vs LEE · £4.5m4.40 xPts
Gomez MID · BHA vs LEE · £5.0m5.69 xPts
Groß MID · BHA vs LEE · £5.5m5.99 xPts
Tavernier MID · BOU @ NEW · £6.0m6.25 xPts
Wissa FWD · NEW vs BOU · £6.1m4.43 xPts
Evanilson FWD · BOU @ NEW · £6.0m3.84 xPts
McBurnie FWD · HUL vs AVL · £5.5m3.31 xPts

FPL Gameweek 3 predicted points — top 25

Player	Fixture	£m	xPts
B.Fernandes MID	MUN @ EVE	12.0	9.82
Cherki MID	MCI vs COV	7.7	7.89
Mbeumo MID	MUN @ EVE	8.0	7.34
Foden MID	MCI vs COV	7.0	7.27
Semenyo MID	MCI vs COV	8.5	6.65
Guéhi DEF	MCI vs COV	6.0	6.49
Tavernier MID	BOU @ NEW	6.0	6.25
Saka MID	ARS vs CHE	9.5	6.01
Groß MID	BHA vs LEE	5.5	5.99
Kayode DEF	BRE vs SUN	4.6	5.78
Gomez MID	BHA vs LEE	5.0	5.69
O'Reilly DEF	MCI vs COV	6.5	5.49
Enciso MID	IPS vs LIV	5.5	5.45
Collins DEF	BRE vs SUN	5.5	5.37
Calafiori DEF	ARS vs CHE	5.7	5.34
Szoboszlai MID	LIV @ IPS	7.0	5.19
Rice MID	ARS vs CHE	7.5	5.11
Barnes MID	NEW vs BOU	6.0	5.10
Gabriel DEF	ARS vs CHE	8.0	5.09
Dewsbury-Hall MID	EVE vs MUN	6.5	4.98
Gakpo MID	LIV @ IPS	7.1	4.95
Iwobi MID	FUL vs CRY	5.5	4.94
Schade MID	BRE vs SUN	6.0	4.84
Haaland FWD	MCI vs COV	15.5	4.84
Tzolakis GK	HUL vs AVL	4.6	4.83

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How these numbers are produced

Minutes are sampled per player, team goals drawn from a Poisson process from attack and defence strength, then goals, assists, saves, cards and bonus allocated under official FPL scoring. xPts is the mean of 500 simulations; floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles. See the method or the FAQ.