FPLHERMESKnowledge base
Fantasy Premier League AI guides
Everything behind the FPLHERMES engine, written out in plain English — how expected points are calculated, how to captain on floor versus ceiling, how to plan transfers over a horizon, and how to tell a real FPL model from a chatbot with opinions.
- AI tools · 8 min
The best AI assistant for Fantasy Premier League: what to look for in 2026
Most FPL AI tools output a single number and hope you trust it. The ones worth paying for model minutes first, simulate whole fixtures, publish their own error record and tell you how wrong they can be.
- Model · 9 min
How AI predicts FPL points, step by step
A projection is not a guess dressed up in decimals. Here is the actual chain of calculations that turns fixtures, form and injury news into an expected-points number.
- Concepts · 7 min
What expected points (xPts) really means in FPL
xPts is the single most misused number in Fantasy Premier League. Understanding what it is — and what it hides — is the difference between using a model and being used by one.
- Captaincy · 7 min
How to pick an FPL captain with a model instead of a hunch
The best captain is not the highest projected player. It is the player whose distribution matches the risk you need this week.
- Transfers · 8 min
Planning FPL transfers with a model over a four-gameweek horizon
Good transfer planning is incremental. A tool that answers every question with a full squad rebuild is not planning, it is starting over.
- Chips · 8 min
The FPL wildcard: what it does, when to play it and how to build the squad
A wildcard is a full squad reset under hard constraints. That is an optimisation problem, and it is one of the few places where a computer beats intuition outright.
- Strategy · 6 min
FPL differentials, and how to pick one that is not just a bad player
A differential is not any low-owned player. It is a low-owned player whose projection the market has mispriced, held at the moment you actually need variance.
- Strategy · 8 min
How to win an FPL mini-league using effective ownership
You are not playing ten million managers. You are playing the twelve people in your league, and the correct strategy is entirely determined by the gap between you and them.
- Data · 7 min
FPL injury news, availability flags and what they do to a projection
A yellow flag is not information until you convert it into minutes. Here is how availability actually enters a projection, and where the data lies to you.
- AI tools · 7 min
Using ChatGPT and other AI chatbots for Fantasy Premier League
An LLM without live data will invent a confident team sheet for a player who was transferred last summer. Used correctly, though, it is the best FPL explainer you have ever had.
- Chips · 7 min
FPL chip strategy: when each chip is actually worth playing
Chips are worth between 10 and 30 points each if timed well and close to zero if timed badly. The thresholds are knowable.
- Concepts · 6 min
Why the official FDR is misleading, and what to use instead
A green fixture is not green for everyone. Difficulty is position-specific, form-sensitive and asymmetric between attack and defence.
- Model · 7 min
How to judge whether an FPL prediction model is any good
Every FPL tool claims accuracy. Almost none publish the four numbers that would let you check.
- Accuracy · 6 min
Is FPL AI accurate? Every prediction we made, checked against real points
Most FPL tools show their best calls. We show all of them: every player we projected before the deadline, scored against what actually happened, every gameweek.
- Comparisons · 5 min
FPLHERMES vs FPL Review: an honest comparison
FPL Review gives expert managers a powerful projection model and solver to work with. FPLHERMES is built for managers who want a straight answer for their own team, with the reasons explained.
- Rules · 6 min
FPL price changes: when they happen, how they work, and whether to chase them
Player prices move on transfer demand, at most £0.1m a day, overnight UK time. Your selling price only keeps half of any rise. Points still matter more than team value.
- Rules · 6 min
FPL defensive contributions: how DefCon points work and who earns them
Defenders score 2 points for 10 clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles in a match. Midfielders and forwards need 12, but ball recoveries count for them too. Keepers can't earn it.
- Rules · 6 min
How FPL bonus points work: the BPS, ties, and what changed for 2026/27
Every player in a match gets a bonus points system (BPS) score. The top three earn 3, 2 and 1 bonus points. Bonus now shows live from the 20th minute and is confirmed at 09:00 UK time the next morning.
- Rules · 5 min
The FPL points system for 2026/27: every way to score (and lose) points
A quick reference to how players earn FPL points in 2026/27, checked against the official game data, plus what the scoring rules mean for how you pick your team.
- Chips · 5 min
FPL chips in 2026/27: two of each, and when the first set runs out
You get two Wildcards, two Free Hits, two Bench Boosts and two Triple Captains. The first set has to be used by Gameweek 19; the second set is for Gameweek 20 onwards.
- Chips · 5 min
The FPL Free Hit: what it does, how many you get and when to use it
A Free Hit gives you a completely new team for one gameweek, then puts your old team back. It is best saved for weeks when lots of your players have no game, or lots of other teams play twice.
- Chips · 4 min
The FPL Bench Boost: how it works and when to play it
Bench Boost adds your substitutes' points to your score for one gameweek. The chip is only as good as your bench, so the work happens in the weeks before you play it.
- Chips · 4 min
The FPL Triple Captain chip: rules and how to pick the week
Triple Captain triples your captain's points for one week instead of doubling them. You get two this season. The best time is a reliable starter with a very good fixture, or two fixtures.
- Chips · 5 min
FPL double gameweeks 2026/27: are any coming up?
A double gameweek is when a team plays twice in one gameweek; a blank is when it doesn't play at all. The live check below reads the official FPL fixture list every few hours, so you can see straight away whether any are confirmed.
- Transfers · 5 min
FPL free transfers and points hits explained
You get one free transfer each gameweek and can save up to five. Every extra transfer costs 4 points. A hit is only worth it if the new player gains you more than 4 points over the time you keep him.
- AI tools · 5 min
FPL team rater: what a useful team rating actually checks
A score out of 100 doesn't tell you what to do. A useful team review finds the players who won't play, the transfers that gain the most points and whether a hit is worth it.
- Strategy · 7 min
FPL tips that actually gain points: 12 habits from a prediction model
Most FPL tips are opinions. These come from what a points model rewards over a whole season: playing time, planning ahead and avoiding expensive habits.