Knowledge base
Fantasy Premier League AI guides
Everything behind the FPLHERMES engine, written out in plain English — how expected points are calculated, how to captain on floor versus ceiling, how to plan transfers over a horizon, and how to tell a real FPL model from a chatbot with opinions.
- AI tools · 8 min
The best AI assistant for Fantasy Premier League: what to look for in 2026
Most FPL AI tools output a single number and hope you trust it. The ones worth paying for model minutes first, simulate whole fixtures, publish their own error record and tell you how wrong they can be.
- Model · 9 min
How AI predicts FPL points, step by step
A projection is not a guess dressed up in decimals. Here is the actual chain of calculations that turns fixtures, form and injury news into an expected-points number.
- Concepts · 7 min
What expected points (xPts) really means in FPL
xPts is the single most misused number in Fantasy Premier League. Understanding what it is — and what it hides — is the difference between using a model and being used by one.
- Captaincy · 7 min
How to pick an FPL captain with a model instead of a hunch
The best captain is not the highest projected player. It is the player whose distribution matches the risk you need this week.
- Transfers · 8 min
Planning FPL transfers with a model over a four-gameweek horizon
Good transfer planning is incremental. A tool that answers every question with a full squad rebuild is not planning, it is starting over.
- Chips · 8 min
How to build a wildcard squad with an optimiser
A wildcard is a full squad reset under hard constraints. That is an optimisation problem, and it is one of the few places where a computer beats intuition outright.
- Strategy · 6 min
FPL differentials, and how to pick one that is not just a bad player
A differential is not any low-owned player. It is a low-owned player whose projection the market has mispriced, held at the moment you actually need variance.
- Strategy · 8 min
How to win an FPL mini-league using effective ownership
You are not playing ten million managers. You are playing the twelve people in your league, and the correct strategy is entirely determined by the gap between you and them.
- Data · 7 min
FPL injury news, availability flags and what they do to a projection
A yellow flag is not information until you convert it into minutes. Here is how availability actually enters a projection, and where the data lies to you.
- AI tools · 7 min
Using ChatGPT and other LLMs for Fantasy Premier League
An LLM without live data will invent a confident team sheet for a player who was transferred last summer. Used correctly, though, it is the best FPL explainer you have ever had.
- Chips · 7 min
FPL chip strategy: when each chip is actually worth playing
Chips are worth between 10 and 30 points each if timed well and close to zero if timed badly. The thresholds are knowable.
- Concepts · 6 min
Why the official FDR is misleading, and what to use instead
A green fixture is not green for everyone. Difficulty is position-specific, form-sensitive and asymmetric between attack and defence.
- Model · 7 min
How to judge whether an FPL prediction model is any good
Every FPL tool claims accuracy. Almost none publish the four numbers that would let you check.