Gameweek preview · 2026/27

FPL Gameweek 8 predictions: captain picks, transfers & differentials

Every fixture simulated 500 times for 435 players — expected points with a floor and a ceiling. Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026 08:50:06 GMT.

Gameweek 8 has been played. Below are the predictions we published before the deadline, unchanged, next to what really happened.

Gameweek 8 results: predicted vs actual points

Across 435 players, our predictions were off by 1.76 points per player on average (we over-predicted by 0.32 on average). No cherry-picking — this is every player we projected.

Player	Predicted	Actual	Mins
B.Fernandes MUN	8.5	0	0
Mbeumo MUN	6.7	2	90
Rice ARS	6.6	3	79
Gabriel ARS	6.4	17	90
Calafiori ARS	6.3	1	22
E.Le Fée SUN	5.9	3	78
Ødegaard ARS	5.9	3	90
Wirtz LIV	5.3	6	64
Xhaka SUN	5.3	3	90
Palmer CHE	5.1	-1	79
Groß BHA	5.0	0	90
Mukiele SUN	5.0	1	51
Guéhi MCI	4.9	0	45
Barcola LIV	4.8	6	76
Enciso IPS	4.7	10	85

See the full season record on is FPL AI accurate?

GW8: gameweek
8.5: top projection
435: players simulated
500: sims per fixture

Captain picks — Gameweek 8

B.Fernandes (MUN vs BOU) leads on 8.54 xPts, 84% chance of 60+ minutes.

B.Fernandes8.5xPts
MUN vs BOU · 84% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 13.0
Mbeumo6.7xPts
MUN vs BOU · 85% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 15.0
Rice6.6xPts
ARS vs EVE · 90% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 7.0
Gabriel6.4xPts
ARS vs EVE · 88% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 9.0
Calafiori6.3xPts
ARS vs EVE · 78% to play 60'
floor 1.0ceiling 11.0

Clean sheet odds

Gabriel · ARS
60%
Calafiori · ARS
60%
White · ARS
60%
Raya · ARS
60%
Konsa · ARS
60%

HUL vs BREMUN vs BOUTOT @ CHECOV vs FULLIV vs BHA

Differentials under 10% owned

← lower ownershiphigher xPts ↑

E.Le Fée SUN · MID · £5.7m · 2.9% owned5.90 xPts
Wirtz LIV · MID · £7.2m · 5.1% owned5.30 xPts
Xhaka SUN · MID · £5.4m · 3.1% owned5.26 xPts
Mukiele SUN · DEF · £5.4m · 1.8% owned4.99 xPts
Barcola LIV · MID · £8.0m · 3.3% owned4.76 xPts

Best value picks — Gameweek 8 transfer targets

Most projected points per £1m among players likely to play 60+ minutes.

Hume DEF · SUN vs LEE · £4.3m4.56 xPts
Calafiori DEF · ARS vs EVE · £6.0m6.27 xPts
Dasilva DEF · COV vs FUL · £4.0m4.09 xPts
E.Le Fée MID · SUN vs LEE · £5.7m5.90 xPts
Xhaka MID · SUN vs LEE · £5.4m5.26 xPts
Rice MID · ARS vs EVE · £7.3m6.58 xPts
Zirkzee FWD · MUN vs BOU · £5.3m3.03 xPts
McBurnie FWD · HUL vs BRE · £5.5m2.98 xPts
Delap FWD · NFO @ IPS · £5.5m2.85 xPts

FPL Gameweek 8 predicted points — top 25

Player	Fixture	£m	xPts
B.Fernandes MID	MUN vs BOU	11.8	8.54
Mbeumo MID	MUN vs BOU	7.9	6.66
Rice MID	ARS vs EVE	7.3	6.58
Gabriel DEF	ARS vs EVE	7.9	6.39
Calafiori DEF	ARS vs EVE	6.0	6.27
E.Le Fée MID	SUN vs LEE	5.7	5.90
Ødegaard MID	ARS vs EVE	6.8	5.87
Wirtz MID	LIV vs BHA	7.2	5.30
Xhaka MID	SUN vs LEE	5.4	5.26
Palmer MID	CHE vs TOT	9.8	5.08
Groß MID	BHA @ LIV	6.2	5.04
Mukiele DEF	SUN vs LEE	5.4	4.99
Guéhi DEF	MCI @ AVL	6.0	4.86
Barcola MID	LIV vs BHA	8.0	4.76
Enciso MID	IPS vs NFO	5.5	4.73
White DEF	ARS vs EVE	5.4	4.65
Rúben DEF	MCI @ AVL	5.5	4.65
Hall DEF	NEW @ CRY	5.3	4.61
Thiaw DEF	NEW @ CRY	5.0	4.56
Hume DEF	SUN vs LEE	4.3	4.56
Tavernier MID	BOU @ MUN	6.2	4.53
Raya GK	ARS vs EVE	6.1	4.50
Wharton MID	CRY vs NEW	5.4	4.49
Yeremy MID	CRY vs NEW	5.5	4.49
Neto MID	CHE vs TOT	6.5	4.43

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How these numbers are produced

Minutes are sampled per player, team goals drawn from a Poisson process from attack and defence strength, then goals, assists, saves, cards and bonus allocated under official FPL scoring. xPts is the mean of 500 simulations; floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles. See the method or the FAQ.